The Pod of Gold: Gold dips, investors hold steady and a possible grey swan event

In this episode, we discuss gold’s recent dip to US$1,923, how investor interest is neither bullish nor bearish and we take a deep look at past exits from yield curve control and what pitfalls the Bank of Japan may face if they try to normalise policy.

Timestamps:

• 01:00 – Nick warned of gold's dip to US$1,923 last podcast
• 02:39 – Spot gold hasn’t been too reactive to Russian events, though it may have provided support
• 04:57 – Technical positioning
• 06:24 – Short term bearish, long term bullish
• 08:15 – Key Fibonacci level could provide support
• 10:59 – Lessons from yield curve control exits
• 12:57 – The Bank of Japan is on track for the good kind of inflation
• 14:06 – BoJ would be aware of potential consequences after nine years of policy
• 16:58 – US implemented YCC from 1942 to 1951
• 19:01 – Reserve Bank of Australia’s exit tarnished its credibility
• 21:58 – BoJ only central bank in the world in possession of every 2nd government bond issued
• 23:11 – The prize of normalisation versus the risks of spillover effects
• 24:02 – A grey swan even and what is the most pressing risk